Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 64

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(1:08) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to LV 18, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow. DEN-48-A.Mintze was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.80 EP
56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model