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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 6-A.Cole punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model