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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 53

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 6-S.Martin punts 33 yards to LV 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 25 for 5 yards (16-T.Cleveland).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.91 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP