4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 48

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to NYG 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 18-C.Board.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.08 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model