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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 8

New York Giants 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 5-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 8, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model