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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 19 at the 87

New York Giants 3 – Los Angeles Rams 38

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 63 yards to LA 24, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 15-T.Atwell to LA 35 for 11 yards (36-C.Gillaspia; 52-C.Coughlin).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.68 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 87, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 45, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model