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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 40

Los Angeles Rams 31 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(:16) 27-D.Henderson left guard to NYG 34 for 6 yards (48-T.Crowder).

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.04 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model