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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 60

New York Giants 3 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to LA 27, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.73 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model