Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 76

New York Giants 3 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to LA 19, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 15-T.Atwell to LA 47 for 28 yards (9-R.Dixon). PENALTY on LA-18-B.Skowronek, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 36. Officially, a return for 17 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.81 EP
64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 76, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model