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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 3

Los Angeles Rams 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(8:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.11 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 3, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model