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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 83

New York Giants 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to LA 26, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at LA 34 for 8 yards (39-E.Penny).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.91 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 83, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 41, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP