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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 1-T.Long punts 69 yards to BAL 12, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 26 for 14 yards (82-S.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.70 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 38, worth -2.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model