4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Baltimore Ravens 34

What Actually Happened

(2:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Guyton.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.43 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP