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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 37

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Baltimore Ravens 34

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to BAL 35 for 2 yards (92-J.Madubuike).

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.18 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model