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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 47

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 1-T.Long punts 37 yards to BAL 10, Center-54-M.Overton, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.46 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.21 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model