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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 21

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.49 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model