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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(5:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Palmer [49-C.Board].

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.49 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.08 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 38, worth -2.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model