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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 34

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.24 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP