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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(9:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 81-M.Williams (44-M.Humphrey).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.78 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model