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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 88

Washington Commanders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 5-T.Way punts 60 yards to KC 28, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 17-M.Hardman to WAS 41 for 31 yards (5-T.Way).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.86 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 88, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP