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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 20

Kansas City Chiefs 31 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(:33) 77-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 31-Da.Williams right end to WAS 21 for -1 yards (97-T.Settle).

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.18 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.19 EP