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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 55

Washington Commanders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to KC 4, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.89 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model