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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 24

Washington Commanders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.95 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model