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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 52

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 5-T.Townsend punts 34 yards to WAS 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model