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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 71

Washington Commanders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 5-T.Way punts 66 yards to KC 5, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model