4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 34

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.71 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP