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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 13

Cleveland Browns 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at ARI 22 for -9 yards (58-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.48 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 13, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model