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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 37 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(2:20) (Shotgun) 29-J.Ward left guard to CLE 19 for 6 yards (92-S.Day; 96-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.73 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model