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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 7

Cleveland Browns 14 – Arizona Cardinals 30

What Actually Happened

(12:10) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 13-O.Beckham (23-R.Alford). CLE-27-K.Hunt was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 7, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model