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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 68

Arizona Cardinals 23 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 14-A.Lee punts 57 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-D.Felton to CLE 32 for 21 yards (49-K.Fitts, 59-J.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.82 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 26, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model