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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 14 – Arizona Cardinals 23

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 7-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to ARI 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 27 for 4 yards (29-H.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.30 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model