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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 33

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.53 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.21 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model