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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 7-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to ARI 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 26 for 4 yards (22-G.Delpit).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model