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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 27 – Washington Commanders 22

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 2-J.Winston left guard to NO 36 for 2 yards (90-M.Sweat).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.28 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model