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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 6

Washington Commanders 13 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 3-D.Hopkins 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 6, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model