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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 26

Washington Commanders 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model