4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 13 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 4-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to WAS 1, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.09 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model