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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 14

New England Patriots 12 – Houston Texans 22

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model