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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 33

New England Patriots 9 – Houston Texans 22

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.28 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model