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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 75

New England Patriots 9 – Houston Texans 22

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to HOU 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at HOU 28 for 11 yards (18-M.Slater). Punt Hangtime: 4.88s

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model