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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 44

Houston Texans 12 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(2:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 18-C.Conley to NE 4 for 40 yards (33-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.19 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model