4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 44

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 34-S.Perine to GB 39 for 5 yards (31-A.Amos).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.33 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model