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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 39

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – Green Bay Packers 22

What Actually Happened

(:26) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +0.67 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model