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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 18

Green Bay Packers 22 – Cincinnati Bengals 22

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.83 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model