4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 42

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Green Bay Packers 22

What Actually Happened

(6:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to GB 40 for 2 yards (91-P.Smith; 52-R.Gary).

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.96 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model