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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 83

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to GB 37, Center-46-C.Harris. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 38 for 1 yard (55-L.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.99 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP