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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 40

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(:16) 10-K.Huber punts 25 yards to GB 15, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.28 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model