4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 42

Green Bay Packers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to CIN 6, Center-43-H.Bradley. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 8 for 2 yards (24-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model