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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 53

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Green Bay Packers 9

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to GB 11, Center-46-C.Harris. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 19 for 8 yards (17-S.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP