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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to GB 38, impetus ends at GB 36, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model